# tfp.sts.SmoothSeasonalStateSpaceModel

State space model for a smooth seasonal effect.

Inherits From: LinearGaussianStateSpaceModel, Distribution, AutoCompositeTensor

A state space model (SSM) posits a set of latent (unobserved) variables that evolve over time with dynamics specified by a probabilistic transition model p(z[t+1] | z[t]). At each timestep, we observe a value sampled from an observation model conditioned on the current state, p(x[t] | z[t]). The special case where both the transition and observation models are Gaussians with mean specified as a linear function of the inputs, is known as a linear Gaussian state space model and supports tractable exact probabilistic calculations; see tfp.distributions.LinearGaussianStateSpaceModel for details.

A smooth seasonal effect model is a special case of a linear Gaussian SSM. It is the sum of a set of "cyclic" components, with one component for each frequency:

frequencies[j] = 2. * pi * frequency_multipliers[j] / period

Each cyclic component contains two latent states which we denote effect and auxiliary. The two latent states for component j drift over time via:

effect[t] = (effect[t - 1] * cos(frequencies[j]) +
auxiliary[t - 1] * sin(frequencies[j]) +
Normal(0., drift_scale))

auxiliary[t] = (-effect[t - 1] * sin(frequencies[j]) +
auxiliary[t - 1] * cos(frequencies[j]) +
Normal(0., drift_scale))

The auxiliary latent state only appears as a matter of construction and thus its interpretation is not particularly important. The total smooth seasonal effect is the sum of the effect values from each of the cyclic components.

The parameters drift_scale and observation_noise_scale are each (a batch of) scalars. The batch shape of this Distribution is the broadcast batch shape of these parameters and of the initial_state_prior.

#### Mathematical Details

The smooth seasonal effect model implements a tfp.distributions.LinearGaussianStateSpaceModel with latent_size = 2 * len(frequency_multipliers) and observation_size = 1. The latent state is the concatenation of the cyclic latent states which themselves comprise an effect and an auxiliary state. The transition matrix is a block diagonal matrix where block j is:

transition_matrix[j] =  [[cos(frequencies[j]), sin(frequencies[j])],
[-sin(frequencies[j]), cos(frequencies[j])]]

The observation model picks out the cyclic effect values from the latent state:

observation_matrix = [[1., 0., 1., 0., ..., 1., 0.]]
observation_noise ~ Normal(loc=0, scale=observation_noise_scale)

For further mathematical details please see [1].

#### Examples

A state space model with smooth daily seasonality on hourly data. In other words, each day there is a pattern which broadly repeats itself over the course of the day and doesn't change too much from one hour to the next. Four random samples from such a model can be obtained via:

from matplotlib import pylab as plt

ssm = SmoothSeasonalStateSpaceModel(
num_timesteps=100,
period=24,
frequency_multipliers=[1, 4],
drift_scale=0.1,
initial_state_prior=tfd.MultivariateNormalDiag(
scale_diag=tf.fill([4], 2.0)),
)

fig, axes = plt.subplots(4)

series = ssm.sample(4)

for series, ax in zip(series[..., 0], axes):
ax.set_xticks(tf.range(ssm.num_timesteps, delta=ssm.period))
ax.grid()
ax.plot(series)

plt.show()

A comparison of the above with a comparable Seasonal component gives an example of the difference between these two components:

ssm = SeasonalStateSpaceModel(
num_timesteps=100,
num_seasons=24,
num_steps_per_season=1,
drift_scale=0.1,
initial_state_prior=tfd.MultivariateNormalDiag(
scale_diag=tf.fill([24], 2.0)),
)

#### References

[1]: Harvey, A. Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.

num_timesteps Scalar int Tensor number of timesteps to model with this distribution.
period positive scalar float Tensor giving the number of timesteps required for the longest cyclic effect to repeat.
frequency_multipliers One-dimensional float Tensor listing the frequencies (cyclic components) included in the model, as multipliers of the base/fundamental frequency 2. * pi / period. Each component is specified by the number of times it repeats per period, and adds two latent dimensions to the model. A smooth seasonal model that can represent any periodic function is given by frequency_multipliers = [1, 2, ..., floor(period / 2)]. However, it is often desirable to enforce a smoothness assumption (and reduce the computational burden) by dropping some of the higher frequencies.
drift_scale Scalar (any additional dimensions are treated as batch dimensions) float Tensor indicating the standard deviation of the latent state transitions.
initial_state_prior instance of tfd.MultivariateNormal representing the prior distribution on latent states. Must have event shape [num_features].
observation_noise_scale Scalar (any additional dimensions are treated as batch dimensions) float Tensor indicating the standard deviation of the observation noise. Default value: 0..
name Python str name prefixed to ops created by this class. Default value: 'SmoothSeasonalStateSpaceModel'.
**linear_gaussian_ssm_kwargs Optional additional keyword arguments to to the base tfd.LinearGaussianStateSpaceModel constructor.

allow_nan_stats Python bool describing behavior when a stat is undefined.

Stats return +/- infinity when it makes sense. E.g., the variance of a Cauchy distribution is infinity. However, sometimes the statistic is undefined, e.g., if a distribution's pdf does not achieve a maximum within the support of the distribution, the mode is undefined. If the mean is undefined, then by definition the variance is undefined. E.g. the mean for Student's T for df = 1 is undefined (no clear way to say it is either + or - infinity), so the variance = E[(X - mean)**2] is also undefined.

batch_shape Shape of a single sample from a single event index as a TensorShape.

May be partially defined or unknown.

The batch dimensions are indexes into independent, non-identical parameterizations of this distribution.

drift_scale Standard deviation of the drift in the cyclic effects.
dtype The DType of Tensors handled by this Distribution.
event_shape Shape of a single sample from a single batch as a TensorShape.

May be partially defined or unknown.

experimental_parallelize

experimental_shard_axis_names The list or structure of lists of active shard axis names.
frequency_multipliers Multipliers of the fundamental frequency.
initial_state_prior

initial_step

name Name prepended to all ops created by this Distribution.
name_scope Returns a tf.name_scope instance for this class.
non_trainable_variables Sequence of non-trainable variables owned by this module and its submodules.

num_timesteps

observation_matrix

observation_noise

observation_noise_scale Standard deviation of the observation noise.
parameters Dictionary of parameters used to instantiate this Distribution.
period The seasonal period.
reparameterization_type Describes how samples from the distribution are reparameterized.

Currently this is one of the static instances tfd.FULLY_REPARAMETERIZED or tfd.NOT_REPARAMETERIZED.

submodules Sequence of all sub-modules.

Submodules are modules which are properties of this module, or found as properties of modules which are properties of this module (and so on).

a = tf.Module()
b = tf.Module()
c = tf.Module()
a.b = b
b.c = c
list(a.submodules) == [b, c]
True
list(b.submodules) == [c]
True
list(c.submodules) == []
True

trainable_variables Sequence of trainable variables owned by this module and its submodules.

transition_matrix

transition_noise

validate_args Python bool indicating possibly expensive checks are enabled.
variables Sequence of variables owned by this module and its submodules.

## Methods

### backward_smoothing_pass

View source

Run the backward pass in Kalman smoother.

The backward smoothing is using Rauch, Tung and Striebel smoother as as discussed in section 18.3.2 of Kevin P. Murphy, 2012, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective, The MIT Press. The inputs are returned by forward_filter function.

Args
filtered_means Means of the per-timestep filtered marginal distributions p(z[t] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size].
filtered_covs Covariances of the per-timestep filtered marginal distributions p(z[t] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size, latent_size].
predicted_means Means of the per-timestep predictive distributions over latent states, p(z[t+1] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size].
predicted_covs Covariances of the per-timestep predictive distributions over latent states, p(z[t+1] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size, latent_size].

Returns
posterior_means Means of the smoothed marginal distributions p(z[t] | x[1:T]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size], which is of the same shape as filtered_means.
posterior_covs Covariances of the smoothed marginal distributions p(z[t] | x[1:T]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size, latent_size]. which is of the same shape as filtered_covs.

### batch_shape_tensor

View source

Shape of a single sample from a single event index as a 1-D Tensor.

The batch dimensions are indexes into independent, non-identical parameterizations of this distribution.

Args
name name to give to the op

Returns
batch_shape Tensor.

### cdf

View source

Cumulative distribution function.

Given random variable X, the cumulative distribution function cdf is:

cdf(x) := P[X <= x]

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
cdf a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### copy

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Creates a deep copy of the distribution.

Args
**override_parameters_kwargs String/value dictionary of initialization arguments to override with new values.

Returns
distribution A new instance of type(self) initialized from the union of self.parameters and override_parameters_kwargs, i.e., dict(self.parameters, **override_parameters_kwargs).

### covariance

View source

Covariance.

Covariance is (possibly) defined only for non-scalar-event distributions.

For example, for a length-k, vector-valued distribution, it is calculated as,

Cov[i, j] = Covariance(X_i, X_j) = E[(X_i - E[X_i]) (X_j - E[X_j])]

where Cov is a (batch of) k x k matrix, 0 <= (i, j) < k, and E denotes expectation.

Alternatively, for non-vector, multivariate distributions (e.g., matrix-valued, Wishart), Covariance shall return a (batch of) matrices under some vectorization of the events, i.e.,

Cov[i, j] = Covariance(Vec(X)_i, Vec(X)_j) = [as above]

where Cov is a (batch of) k' x k' matrices, 0 <= (i, j) < k' = reduce_prod(event_shape), and Vec is some function mapping indices of this distribution's event dimensions to indices of a length-k' vector.

Args
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
covariance Floating-point Tensor with shape [B1, ..., Bn, k', k'] where the first n dimensions are batch coordinates and k' = reduce_prod(self.event_shape).

### cross_entropy

View source

Computes the (Shannon) cross entropy.

Denote this distribution (self) by P and the other distribution by Q. Assuming P, Q are absolutely continuous with respect to one another and permit densities p(x) dr(x) and q(x) dr(x), (Shannon) cross entropy is defined as:

H[P, Q] = E_p[-log q(X)] = -int_F p(x) log q(x) dr(x)

where F denotes the support of the random variable X ~ P.

Args
other tfp.distributions.Distribution instance.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.

Returns
cross_entropy self.dtype Tensor with shape [B1, ..., Bn] representing n different calculations of (Shannon) cross entropy.

### entropy

View source

Shannon entropy in nats.

### event_shape_tensor

View source

Shape of a single sample from a single batch as a 1-D int32 Tensor.

Args
name name to give to the op

Returns
event_shape Tensor.

### experimental_default_event_space_bijector

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Bijector mapping the reals (R**n) to the event space of the distribution.

Distributions with continuous support may implement _default_event_space_bijector which returns a subclass of tfp.bijectors.Bijector that maps R**n to the distribution's event space. For example, the default bijector for the Beta distribution is tfp.bijectors.Sigmoid(), which maps the real line to [0, 1], the support of the Beta distribution. The default bijector for the CholeskyLKJ distribution is tfp.bijectors.CorrelationCholesky, which maps R^(k * (k-1) // 2) to the submanifold of k x k lower triangular matrices with ones along the diagonal.

The purpose of experimental_default_event_space_bijector is to enable gradient descent in an unconstrained space for Variational Inference and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods. Some effort has been made to choose bijectors such that the tails of the distribution in the unconstrained space are between Gaussian and Exponential.

For distributions with discrete event space, or for which TFP currently lacks a suitable bijector, this function returns None.

Args
*args Passed to implementation _default_event_space_bijector.
**kwargs Passed to implementation _default_event_space_bijector.

Returns
event_space_bijector Bijector instance or None.

### experimental_fit

View source

Instantiates a distribution that maximizes the likelihood of x.

Args
value a Tensor valid sample from this distribution family.
sample_ndims Positive int Tensor number of leftmost dimensions of value that index i.i.d. samples. Default value: 1.
validate_args Python bool, default False. When True, distribution parameters are checked for validity despite possibly degrading runtime performance. When False, invalid inputs may silently render incorrect outputs. Default value: False.
**init_kwargs Additional keyword arguments passed through to cls.__init__. These take precedence in case of collision with the fitted parameters; for example, tfd.Normal.experimental_fit([1., 1.], scale=20.) returns a Normal distribution with scale=20. rather than the maximum likelihood parameter scale=0..

Returns
maximum_likelihood_instance instance of cls with parameters that maximize the likelihood of value.

### experimental_local_measure

View source

Returns a log probability density together with a TangentSpace.

A TangentSpace allows us to calculate the correct push-forward density when we apply a transformation to a Distribution on a strict submanifold of R^n (typically via a Bijector in the TransformedDistribution subclass). The density correction uses the basis of the tangent space.

Args
value float or double Tensor.
backward_compat bool specifying whether to fall back to returning FullSpace as the tangent space, and representing R^n with the standard basis.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
log_prob a Tensor representing the log probability density, of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.
tangent_space a TangentSpace object (by default FullSpace) representing the tangent space to the manifold at value.

Raises
UnspecifiedTangentSpaceError if backward_compat is False and the _experimental_tangent_space attribute has not been defined.

### experimental_sample_and_log_prob

View source

Samples from this distribution and returns the log density of the sample.

The default implementation simply calls sample and log_prob:

def _sample_and_log_prob(self, sample_shape, seed, **kwargs):
x = self.sample(sample_shape=sample_shape, seed=seed, **kwargs)
return x, self.log_prob(x, **kwargs)

However, some subclasses may provide more efficient and/or numerically stable implementations.

Args
sample_shape integer Tensor desired shape of samples to draw. Default value: ().
seed PRNG seed; see tfp.random.sanitize_seed for details. Default value: None.
name name to give to the op. Default value: 'sample_and_log_prob'.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
samples a Tensor, or structure of Tensors, with prepended dimensions sample_shape.
log_prob a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### forward_filter

View source

Run a Kalman filter over a provided sequence of outputs.

Note that the returned values filtered_means, predicted_means, and observation_means depend on the observed time series x, while the corresponding covariances are independent of the observed series; i.e., they depend only on the model itself. This means that the mean values have shape concat([sample_shape(x), batch_shape, [num_timesteps, {latent/observation}_size]]), while the covariances have shape concat[(batch_shape, [num_timesteps, {latent/observation}_size, {latent/observation}_size]]), which does not depend on the sample shape.

Args
x a float-type Tensor with rightmost dimensions [num_timesteps, observation_size] matching self.event_shape. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable to self.batch_shape; any further dimensions are interpreted as a sample shape.
mask optional bool-type Tensor with rightmost dimension [num_timesteps]; True values specify that the value of x at that timestep is masked, i.e., not conditioned on. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable to self.batch_shape; any further dimensions must match or be broadcastable to the sample shape of x. Default value: None (falls back to self.mask).
final_step_only optional Python bool. If True, the num_timesteps dimension is omitted from all return values and only the value from the final timestep is returned (in this case, log_likelihoods will be the cumulative log marginal likelihood). This may be significantly more efficient than returning all values (although note that no efficiency gain is expected when self.experimental_parallelize=True). Default value: False.

Returns
log_likelihoods Per-timestep log marginal likelihoods log p(x[t] | x[:t-1]) evaluated at the input x, as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps]. If final_step_only is True, this will instead be the cumulative log marginal likelihood at the final step.
filtered_means Means of the per-timestep filtered marginal distributions p(z[t] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size].
filtered_covs Covariances of the per-timestep filtered marginal distributions p(z[t] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size, latent_size]. Since posterior covariances do not depend on observed data, some implementations may return a Tensor whose shape omits the initial sample_shape(x).
predicted_means Means of the per-timestep predictive distributions over latent states, p(z[t+1] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size].
predicted_covs Covariances of the per-timestep predictive distributions over latent states, p(z[t+1] | x[:t]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, latent_size, latent_size]. Since posterior covariances do not depend on observed data, some implementations may return a Tensor whose shape omits the initial sample_shape(x).
observation_means Means of the per-timestep predictive distributions over observations, p(x[t] | x[:t-1]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, observation_size].
observation_covs Covariances of the per-timestep predictive distributions over observations, p(x[t] | x[:t-1]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, observation_size, observation_size]. Since posterior covariances do not depend on observed data, some implementations may return a Tensor whose shape omits the initial sample_shape(x).

### is_scalar_batch

View source

Indicates that batch_shape == [].

Args
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.

Returns
is_scalar_batch bool scalar Tensor.

### is_scalar_event

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Indicates that event_shape == [].

Args
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.

Returns
is_scalar_event bool scalar Tensor.

### kl_divergence

View source

Computes the Kullback--Leibler divergence.

Denote this distribution (self) by p and the other distribution by q. Assuming p, q are absolutely continuous with respect to reference measure r, the KL divergence is defined as:

KL[p, q] = E_p[log(p(X)/q(X))]
= -int_F p(x) log q(x) dr(x) + int_F p(x) log p(x) dr(x)
= H[p, q] - H[p]

where F denotes the support of the random variable X ~ p, H[., .] denotes (Shannon) cross entropy, and H[.] denotes (Shannon) entropy.

Args
other tfp.distributions.Distribution instance.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.

Returns
kl_divergence self.dtype Tensor with shape [B1, ..., Bn] representing n different calculations of the Kullback-Leibler divergence.

View source

### latents_to_observations

View source

Push latent means and covariances forward through the observation model.

Args
latent_means float Tensor of shape [..., num_timesteps, latent_size]
latent_covs float Tensor of shape [..., num_timesteps, latent_size, latent_size].

Returns
observation_means float Tensor of shape [..., num_timesteps, observation_size]
observation_covs float Tensor of shape [..., num_timesteps, observation_size, observation_size]

### log_cdf

View source

Log cumulative distribution function.

Given random variable X, the cumulative distribution function cdf is:

log_cdf(x) := Log[ P[X <= x] ]

Often, a numerical approximation can be used for log_cdf(x) that yields a more accurate answer than simply taking the logarithm of the cdf when x << -1.

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
logcdf a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### log_prob

View source

Log probability density/mass function.

##### kwargs:
• mask: optional bool-type Tensor with rightmost dimension [num_timesteps]; True values specify that the value of x at that timestep is masked, i.e., not conditioned on. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable to self.batch_shape; any further dimensions must match or be broadcastable to the sample shape of x. Default value: None (falls back to self.mask).

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
log_prob a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### log_survival_function

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Log survival function.

Given random variable X, the survival function is defined:

log_survival_function(x) = Log[ P[X > x] ]
= Log[ 1 - P[X <= x] ]
= Log[ 1 - cdf(x) ]

Typically, different numerical approximations can be used for the log survival function, which are more accurate than 1 - cdf(x) when x >> 1.

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

View source

Mean.

View source

Mode.

View source

### param_shapes

View source

Shapes of parameters given the desired shape of a call to sample(). (deprecated)

This is a class method that describes what key/value arguments are required to instantiate the given Distribution so that a particular shape is returned for that instance's call to sample().

Subclasses should override class method _param_shapes.

Args
sample_shape Tensor or python list/tuple. Desired shape of a call to sample().
name name to prepend ops with.

Returns
dict of parameter name to Tensor shapes.

### param_static_shapes

View source

param_shapes with static (i.e. TensorShape) shapes. (deprecated)

This is a class method that describes what key/value arguments are required to instantiate the given Distribution so that a particular shape is returned for that instance's call to sample(). Assumes that the sample's shape is known statically.

Subclasses should override class method _param_shapes to return constant-valued tensors when constant values are fed.

Args
sample_shape TensorShape or python list/tuple. Desired shape of a call to sample().

Returns
dict of parameter name to TensorShape.

Raises
ValueError if sample_shape is a TensorShape and is not fully defined.

### parameter_properties

View source

Returns a dict mapping constructor arg names to property annotations.

This dict should include an entry for each of the distribution's Tensor-valued constructor arguments.

Distribution subclasses are not required to implement _parameter_properties, so this method may raise NotImplementedError. Providing a _parameter_properties implementation enables several advanced features, including:

• Distribution batch slicing (sliced_distribution = distribution[i:j]).
• Automatic inference of _batch_shape and _batch_shape_tensor, which must otherwise be computed explicitly.
• Automatic instantiation of the distribution within TFP's internal property tests.
• Automatic construction of 'trainable' instances of the distribution using appropriate bijectors to avoid violating parameter constraints. This enables the distribution family to be used easily as a surrogate posterior in variational inference.

In the future, parameter property annotations may enable additional functionality; for example, returning Distribution instances from tf.vectorized_map.

Args
dtype Optional float dtype to assume for continuous-valued parameters. Some constraining bijectors require advance knowledge of the dtype because certain constants (e.g., tfb.Softplus.low) must be instantiated with the same dtype as the values to be transformed.
num_classes Optional int Tensor number of classes to assume when inferring the shape of parameters for categorical-like distributions. Otherwise ignored.

Returns
parameter_properties A str ->tfp.python.internal.parameter_properties.ParameterPropertiesdict mapping constructor argument names toParameterProperties` instances.

Raises
NotImplementedError if the distribution class does not implement _parameter_properties.

### posterior_marginals

View source

Run a Kalman smoother to return posterior mean and cov.

Note that the returned values smoothed_means depend on the observed time series x, while the smoothed_covs are independent of the observed series; i.e., they depend only on the model itself. This means that the mean values have shape concat([sample_shape(x), batch_shape, [num_timesteps, {latent/observation}_size]]), while the covariances have shape concat[(batch_shape, [num_timesteps, {latent/observation}_size, {latent/observation}_size]]), which does not depend on the sample shape.

This function only performs smoothing. If the user wants the intermediate values, which are returned by filtering pass forward_filter, one could get it by:

(log_likelihoods,
filtered_means, filtered_covs,
predicted_means, predicted_covs,
observation_means, observation_covs) = model.forward_filter(x)
smoothed_means, smoothed_covs = model.backward_smoothing_pass(
filtered_means, filtered_covs,
predicted_means, predicted_covs)

where x is an observation sequence.

Args
x a float-type Tensor with rightmost dimensions [num_timesteps, observation_size] matching self.event_shape. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable to self.batch_shape; any further dimensions are interpreted as a sample shape.
mask optional bool-type Tensor with rightmost dimension [num_timesteps]; True values specify that the value of x at that timestep is masked, i.e., not conditioned on. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable to self.batch_shape; any further dimensions must match or be broadcastable to the sample shape of x. Default value: None (falls back to self.mask).

Returns
smoothed_means Means of the per-timestep smoothed distributions over latent states, p(z[t] | x[:T]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, observation_size].
smoothed_covs Covariances of the per-timestep smoothed distributions over latent states, p(z[t] | x[:T]), as a Tensor of shape sample_shape(mask) + batch_shape + [num_timesteps, observation_size, observation_size]. Note that the covariances depend only on the model and the mask, not on the data, so this may have fewer dimensions than filtered_means.

### posterior_sample

View source

Draws samples from the posterior over latent trajectories.

This method uses Durbin-Koopman sampling [1], an efficient algorithm to sample from the posterior latents of a linear Gaussian state space model. The cost of drawing a sample is equal to the cost of drawing a prior sample (.sample(sample_shape)), plus the cost of Kalman smoothing ( .posterior_marginals(...) on both the observed time series and the prior sample. This method is significantly more efficient in graph mode, because it uses only the posterior means and can elide the unneeded calculation of marginal covariances.

[1] Durbin, J. and Koopman, S.J. A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis. Biometrika 89(3):603-615, 2002. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4140605

Args
x a float-type Tensor with rightmost dimensions [num_timesteps, observation_size] matching self.event_shape. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable with self.batch_shape.
sample_shape int Tensor shape of samples to draw. Default value: ().
mask optional bool-type Tensor with rightmost dimension [num_timesteps]; True values specify that the value of x at that timestep is masked, i.e., not conditioned on. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable with self.batch_shape and x.shape[:-2]. Default value: None (falls back to self.mask).
seed PRNG seed; see tfp.random.sanitize_seed for details.
name Python str name for ops generated by this method.

Returns
latent_posterior_sample Float Tensor of shape concat([sample_shape, batch_shape, [num_timesteps, latent_size]]), where batch_shape is the broadcast shape of self.batch_shape, x.shape[:-2], and mask.shape[:-1], representing n samples from the posterior over latent states given the observed value x.

### prob

View source

Probability density/mass function.

##### kwargs:
• mask: optional bool-type Tensor with rightmost dimension [num_timesteps]; True values specify that the value of x at that timestep is masked, i.e., not conditioned on. Additional dimensions must match or be broadcastable to self.batch_shape; any further dimensions must match or be broadcastable to the sample shape of x. Default value: None (falls back to self.mask).

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
prob a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### quantile

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Quantile function. Aka 'inverse cdf' or 'percent point function'.

Given random variable X and p in [0, 1], the quantile is:

quantile(p) := x such that P[X <= x] == p

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
quantile a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### sample

View source

Generate samples of the specified shape.

Note that a call to sample() without arguments will generate a single sample.

Args
sample_shape 0D or 1D int32 Tensor. Shape of the generated samples.
seed PRNG seed; see tfp.random.sanitize_seed for details.
name name to give to the op.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
samples a Tensor with prepended dimensions sample_shape.

### stddev

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Standard deviation.

Standard deviation is defined as,

stddev = E[(X - E[X])**2]**0.5

where X is the random variable associated with this distribution, E denotes expectation, and stddev.shape = batch_shape + event_shape.

Args
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
stddev Floating-point Tensor with shape identical to batch_shape + event_shape, i.e., the same shape as self.mean().

### survival_function

View source

Survival function.

Given random variable X, the survival function is defined:

survival_function(x) = P[X > x]
= 1 - P[X <= x]
= 1 - cdf(x).

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### unnormalized_log_prob

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Potentially unnormalized log probability density/mass function.

This function is similar to log_prob, but does not require that the return value be normalized. (Normalization here refers to the total integral of probability being one, as it should be by definition for any probability distribution.) This is useful, for example, for distributions where the normalization constant is difficult or expensive to compute. By default, this simply calls log_prob.

Args
value float or double Tensor.
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
unnormalized_log_prob a Tensor of shape sample_shape(x) + self.batch_shape with values of type self.dtype.

### variance

View source

Variance.

Variance is defined as,

Var = E[(X - E[X])**2]

where X is the random variable associated with this distribution, E denotes expectation, and Var.shape = batch_shape + event_shape.

Args
name Python str prepended to names of ops created by this function.
**kwargs Named arguments forwarded to subclass implementation.

Returns
variance Floating-point Tensor with shape identical to batch_shape + event_shape, i.e., the same shape as self.mean().

### with_name_scope

Decorator to automatically enter the module name scope.

class MyModule(tf.Module):
@tf.Module.with_name_scope
def __call__(self, x):
if not hasattr(self, 'w'):
self.w = tf.Variable(tf.random.normal([x.shape[1], 3]))
return tf.matmul(x, self.w)

Using the above module would produce tf.Variables and tf.Tensors whose names included the module name:

mod = MyModule()
mod(tf.ones([1, 2]))
<tf.Tensor: shape=(1, 3), dtype=float32, numpy=..., dtype=float32)>
mod.w
<tf.Variable 'my_module/Variable:0' shape=(2, 3) dtype=float32,
numpy=..., dtype=float32)>

Args
method The method to wrap.

Returns
The original method wrapped such that it enters the module's name scope.

### __getitem__

View source

Slices the batch axes of this distribution, returning a new instance.

b = tfd.Bernoulli(logits=tf.zeros([3, 5, 7, 9]))
b.batch_shape  # => [3, 5, 7, 9]
b2 = b[:, tf.newaxis, ..., -2:, 1::2]
b2.batch_shape  # => [3, 1, 5, 2, 4]

x = tf.random.normal([5, 3, 2, 2])
cov = tf.matmul(x, x, transpose_b=True)
chol = tf.linalg.cholesky(cov)
loc = tf.random.normal([4, 1, 3, 1])
mvn = tfd.MultivariateNormalTriL(loc, chol)
mvn.batch_shape  # => [4, 5, 3]
mvn.event_shape  # => [2]
mvn2 = mvn[:, 3:, ..., ::-1, tf.newaxis]
mvn2.batch_shape  # => [4, 2, 3, 1]
mvn2.event_shape  # => [2]

Args
slices slices from the [] operator

Returns
dist A new tfd.Distribution instance with sliced parameters.

View source

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