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এই উদাহরণে আমরা TFP-এর "সম্ভাব্য স্তরগুলি" ব্যবহার করে রিগ্রেশন মডেলগুলি কীভাবে ফিট করা যায় তা দেখাই।
নির্ভরতা এবং পূর্বশর্ত
আমদানি
from pprint import pprint
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import seaborn as sns
import tensorflow.compat.v2 as tf
tf.enable_v2_behavior()
import tensorflow_probability as tfp
sns.reset_defaults()
#sns.set_style('whitegrid')
#sns.set_context('talk')
sns.set_context(context='talk',font_scale=0.7)
%matplotlib inline
tfd = tfp.distributions
জিনিস দ্রুত করুন!
আমরা ডুব দেওয়ার আগে, আসুন নিশ্চিত করি যে আমরা এই ডেমোর জন্য একটি GPU ব্যবহার করছি৷
এটি করতে, "রানটাইম" -> "রানটাইম টাইপ পরিবর্তন করুন" -> "হার্ডওয়্যার অ্যাক্সিলারেটর" -> "GPU" নির্বাচন করুন।
নিচের স্নিপেটটি যাচাই করবে যে আমাদের কাছে একটি GPU অ্যাক্সেস আছে।
if tf.test.gpu_device_name() != '/device:GPU:0':
print('WARNING: GPU device not found.')
else:
print('SUCCESS: Found GPU: {}'.format(tf.test.gpu_device_name()))
WARNING: GPU device not found.
প্রেরণা
এটা কি দুর্দান্ত হবে না যদি আমরা একটি সম্ভাব্য মডেল নির্দিষ্ট করতে TFP ব্যবহার করতে পারি তাহলে কেবল নেতিবাচক লগ-সম্ভাবনা কমিয়ে আনতে পারি, যেমন,
negloglik = lambda y, rv_y: -rv_y.log_prob(y)
ওয়েল শুধু এটা সম্ভব নয়, কিন্তু এই কোল্যাব দেখায় কিভাবে! (লিনিয়ার রিগ্রেশন সমস্যার প্রসঙ্গে।)
ডেটাসেট সংশ্লেষণ করুন।
w0 = 0.125
b0 = 5.
x_range = [-20, 60]
def load_dataset(n=150, n_tst=150):
np.random.seed(43)
def s(x):
g = (x - x_range[0]) / (x_range[1] - x_range[0])
return 3 * (0.25 + g**2.)
x = (x_range[1] - x_range[0]) * np.random.rand(n) + x_range[0]
eps = np.random.randn(n) * s(x)
y = (w0 * x * (1. + np.sin(x)) + b0) + eps
x = x[..., np.newaxis]
x_tst = np.linspace(*x_range, num=n_tst).astype(np.float32)
x_tst = x_tst[..., np.newaxis]
return y, x, x_tst
y, x, x_tst = load_dataset()
কেস 1: কোন অনিশ্চয়তা নেই
# Build model.
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
tf.keras.layers.Dense(1),
tfp.layers.DistributionLambda(lambda t: tfd.Normal(loc=t, scale=1)),
])
# Do inference.
model.compile(optimizer=tf.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.01), loss=negloglik)
model.fit(x, y, epochs=1000, verbose=False);
# Profit.
[print(np.squeeze(w.numpy())) for w in model.weights];
yhat = model(x_tst)
assert isinstance(yhat, tfd.Distribution)
0.13032457 5.13029
চিত্র 1: কোন অনিশ্চয়তা।
w = np.squeeze(model.layers[-2].kernel.numpy())
b = np.squeeze(model.layers[-2].bias.numpy())
plt.figure(figsize=[6, 1.5]) # inches
#plt.figure(figsize=[8, 5]) # inches
plt.plot(x, y, 'b.', label='observed');
plt.plot(x_tst, yhat.mean(),'r', label='mean', linewidth=4);
plt.ylim(-0.,17);
plt.yticks(np.linspace(0, 15, 4)[1:]);
plt.xticks(np.linspace(*x_range, num=9));
ax=plt.gca();
ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('left')
ax.spines['left'].set_position(('data', 0))
ax.spines['top'].set_visible(False)
ax.spines['right'].set_visible(False)
#ax.spines['left'].set_smart_bounds(True)
#ax.spines['bottom'].set_smart_bounds(True)
plt.legend(loc='center left', fancybox=True, framealpha=0., bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5))
plt.savefig('/tmp/fig1.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=300)
কেস 2: অ্যালেটোরিক অনিশ্চয়তা
# Build model.
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
tf.keras.layers.Dense(1 + 1),
tfp.layers.DistributionLambda(
lambda t: tfd.Normal(loc=t[..., :1],
scale=1e-3 + tf.math.softplus(0.05 * t[...,1:]))),
])
# Do inference.
model.compile(optimizer=tf.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.01), loss=negloglik)
model.fit(x, y, epochs=1000, verbose=False);
# Profit.
[print(np.squeeze(w.numpy())) for w in model.weights];
yhat = model(x_tst)
assert isinstance(yhat, tfd.Distribution)
[0.14738432 0.1815331 ] [4.4812164 1.2219843]
চিত্র 2: অ্যালেটোরিক অনিশ্চয়তা
plt.figure(figsize=[6, 1.5]) # inches
plt.plot(x, y, 'b.', label='observed');
m = yhat.mean()
s = yhat.stddev()
plt.plot(x_tst, m, 'r', linewidth=4, label='mean');
plt.plot(x_tst, m + 2 * s, 'g', linewidth=2, label=r'mean + 2 stddev');
plt.plot(x_tst, m - 2 * s, 'g', linewidth=2, label=r'mean - 2 stddev');
plt.ylim(-0.,17);
plt.yticks(np.linspace(0, 15, 4)[1:]);
plt.xticks(np.linspace(*x_range, num=9));
ax=plt.gca();
ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('left')
ax.spines['left'].set_position(('data', 0))
ax.spines['top'].set_visible(False)
ax.spines['right'].set_visible(False)
#ax.spines['left'].set_smart_bounds(True)
#ax.spines['bottom'].set_smart_bounds(True)
plt.legend(loc='center left', fancybox=True, framealpha=0., bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5))
plt.savefig('/tmp/fig2.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=300)
কেস 3: এপিস্টেমিক অনিশ্চয়তা
# Specify the surrogate posterior over `keras.layers.Dense` `kernel` and `bias`.
def posterior_mean_field(kernel_size, bias_size=0, dtype=None):
n = kernel_size + bias_size
c = np.log(np.expm1(1.))
return tf.keras.Sequential([
tfp.layers.VariableLayer(2 * n, dtype=dtype),
tfp.layers.DistributionLambda(lambda t: tfd.Independent(
tfd.Normal(loc=t[..., :n],
scale=1e-5 + tf.nn.softplus(c + t[..., n:])),
reinterpreted_batch_ndims=1)),
])
# Specify the prior over `keras.layers.Dense` `kernel` and `bias`.
def prior_trainable(kernel_size, bias_size=0, dtype=None):
n = kernel_size + bias_size
return tf.keras.Sequential([
tfp.layers.VariableLayer(n, dtype=dtype),
tfp.layers.DistributionLambda(lambda t: tfd.Independent(
tfd.Normal(loc=t, scale=1),
reinterpreted_batch_ndims=1)),
])
# Build model.
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
tfp.layers.DenseVariational(1, posterior_mean_field, prior_trainable, kl_weight=1/x.shape[0]),
tfp.layers.DistributionLambda(lambda t: tfd.Normal(loc=t, scale=1)),
])
# Do inference.
model.compile(optimizer=tf.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.01), loss=negloglik)
model.fit(x, y, epochs=1000, verbose=False);
# Profit.
[print(np.squeeze(w.numpy())) for w in model.weights];
yhat = model(x_tst)
assert isinstance(yhat, tfd.Distribution)
[ 0.1387333 5.125723 -4.112224 -2.2171402] [0.12476114 5.147452 ]
চিত্র 3: এপিস্টেমিক অনিশ্চয়তা
plt.figure(figsize=[6, 1.5]) # inches
plt.clf();
plt.plot(x, y, 'b.', label='observed');
yhats = [model(x_tst) for _ in range(100)]
avgm = np.zeros_like(x_tst[..., 0])
for i, yhat in enumerate(yhats):
m = np.squeeze(yhat.mean())
s = np.squeeze(yhat.stddev())
if i < 25:
plt.plot(x_tst, m, 'r', label='ensemble means' if i == 0 else None, linewidth=0.5)
avgm += m
plt.plot(x_tst, avgm/len(yhats), 'r', label='overall mean', linewidth=4)
plt.ylim(-0.,17);
plt.yticks(np.linspace(0, 15, 4)[1:]);
plt.xticks(np.linspace(*x_range, num=9));
ax=plt.gca();
ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('left')
ax.spines['left'].set_position(('data', 0))
ax.spines['top'].set_visible(False)
ax.spines['right'].set_visible(False)
#ax.spines['left'].set_smart_bounds(True)
#ax.spines['bottom'].set_smart_bounds(True)
plt.legend(loc='center left', fancybox=True, framealpha=0., bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5))
plt.savefig('/tmp/fig3.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=300)
কেস 4: অ্যালেটোরিক এবং এপিস্টেমিক অনিশ্চয়তা
# Build model.
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
tfp.layers.DenseVariational(1 + 1, posterior_mean_field, prior_trainable, kl_weight=1/x.shape[0]),
tfp.layers.DistributionLambda(
lambda t: tfd.Normal(loc=t[..., :1],
scale=1e-3 + tf.math.softplus(0.01 * t[...,1:]))),
])
# Do inference.
model.compile(optimizer=tf.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.01), loss=negloglik)
model.fit(x, y, epochs=1000, verbose=False);
# Profit.
[print(np.squeeze(w.numpy())) for w in model.weights];
yhat = model(x_tst)
assert isinstance(yhat, tfd.Distribution)
[ 0.12753433 2.7504077 5.160624 3.8251898 -3.4283297 -0.8961645 -2.2378397 0.1496858 ] [0.14511648 2.7104297 5.1248145 3.7724588 ]
চিত্র 4: এলিয়েটোরিক এবং এপিস্টেমিক উভয় অনিশ্চয়তা
plt.figure(figsize=[6, 1.5]) # inches
plt.plot(x, y, 'b.', label='observed');
yhats = [model(x_tst) for _ in range(100)]
avgm = np.zeros_like(x_tst[..., 0])
for i, yhat in enumerate(yhats):
m = np.squeeze(yhat.mean())
s = np.squeeze(yhat.stddev())
if i < 15:
plt.plot(x_tst, m, 'r', label='ensemble means' if i == 0 else None, linewidth=1.)
plt.plot(x_tst, m + 2 * s, 'g', linewidth=0.5, label='ensemble means + 2 ensemble stdev' if i == 0 else None);
plt.plot(x_tst, m - 2 * s, 'g', linewidth=0.5, label='ensemble means - 2 ensemble stdev' if i == 0 else None);
avgm += m
plt.plot(x_tst, avgm/len(yhats), 'r', label='overall mean', linewidth=4)
plt.ylim(-0.,17);
plt.yticks(np.linspace(0, 15, 4)[1:]);
plt.xticks(np.linspace(*x_range, num=9));
ax=plt.gca();
ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('left')
ax.spines['left'].set_position(('data', 0))
ax.spines['top'].set_visible(False)
ax.spines['right'].set_visible(False)
#ax.spines['left'].set_smart_bounds(True)
#ax.spines['bottom'].set_smart_bounds(True)
plt.legend(loc='center left', fancybox=True, framealpha=0., bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5))
plt.savefig('/tmp/fig4.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=300)
কেস 5: কার্যকরী অনিশ্চয়তা
কাস্টম PSD কার্নেল
class RBFKernelFn(tf.keras.layers.Layer):
def __init__(self, **kwargs):
super(RBFKernelFn, self).__init__(**kwargs)
dtype = kwargs.get('dtype', None)
self._amplitude = self.add_variable(
initializer=tf.constant_initializer(0),
dtype=dtype,
name='amplitude')
self._length_scale = self.add_variable(
initializer=tf.constant_initializer(0),
dtype=dtype,
name='length_scale')
def call(self, x):
# Never called -- this is just a layer so it can hold variables
# in a way Keras understands.
return x
@property
def kernel(self):
return tfp.math.psd_kernels.ExponentiatedQuadratic(
amplitude=tf.nn.softplus(0.1 * self._amplitude),
length_scale=tf.nn.softplus(5. * self._length_scale)
)
# For numeric stability, set the default floating-point dtype to float64
tf.keras.backend.set_floatx('float64')
# Build model.
num_inducing_points = 40
model = tf.keras.Sequential([
tf.keras.layers.InputLayer(input_shape=[1]),
tf.keras.layers.Dense(1, kernel_initializer='ones', use_bias=False),
tfp.layers.VariationalGaussianProcess(
num_inducing_points=num_inducing_points,
kernel_provider=RBFKernelFn(),
event_shape=[1],
inducing_index_points_initializer=tf.constant_initializer(
np.linspace(*x_range, num=num_inducing_points,
dtype=x.dtype)[..., np.newaxis]),
unconstrained_observation_noise_variance_initializer=(
tf.constant_initializer(np.array(0.54).astype(x.dtype))),
),
])
# Do inference.
batch_size = 32
loss = lambda y, rv_y: rv_y.variational_loss(
y, kl_weight=np.array(batch_size, x.dtype) / x.shape[0])
model.compile(optimizer=tf.optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.01), loss=loss)
model.fit(x, y, batch_size=batch_size, epochs=1000, verbose=False)
# Profit.
yhat = model(x_tst)
assert isinstance(yhat, tfd.Distribution)
চিত্র 5: কার্যকরী অনিশ্চয়তা
y, x, _ = load_dataset()
plt.figure(figsize=[6, 1.5]) # inches
plt.plot(x, y, 'b.', label='observed');
num_samples = 7
for i in range(num_samples):
sample_ = yhat.sample().numpy()
plt.plot(x_tst,
sample_[..., 0].T,
'r',
linewidth=0.9,
label='ensemble means' if i == 0 else None);
plt.ylim(-0.,17);
plt.yticks(np.linspace(0, 15, 4)[1:]);
plt.xticks(np.linspace(*x_range, num=9));
ax=plt.gca();
ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('bottom')
ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('left')
ax.spines['left'].set_position(('data', 0))
ax.spines['top'].set_visible(False)
ax.spines['right'].set_visible(False)
#ax.spines['left'].set_smart_bounds(True)
#ax.spines['bottom'].set_smart_bounds(True)
plt.legend(loc='center left', fancybox=True, framealpha=0., bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 0.5))
plt.savefig('/tmp/fig5.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=300)
